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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


North Carolina St.

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:64.0
Current RPI:64
Expected SOS:64
Current SOS:64
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:142
Expected OOC SOS:260



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1164.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10VMI (313.0)SCH102-67W100%0.0
11-12Charleston Southern (261.0)BSthH78-56W100%0.0
11-14Bryant (341.0)NECH95-72W100%0.0
11-16Presbyterian (319.0)BSthH86-68W100%0.0
11-22Arizona (13.0)P12N90-84W100%0.0
11-23Northern Iowa (138.0)MVCN64-60L0%0.0
11-24Tennessee (8.0)SECN58-67L0%0.0
11-29Penn St. (77.0)B10H85-78W100%0.0
12-2South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH103-71W100%0.0
12-9UMKC (256.0)WACH88-69W100%0.0
12-16UNC Greensboro (65.0)SCH76-81L0%0.0
12-19Robert Morris (196.0)NECH81-69W100%0.0
12-22Jacksonville (286.0)ASunH116-64W100%0.0
12-30Clemson (11.0)ACCA78-62L0%0.0
1-3Notre Dame (70.0)ACCA88-58L0%0.0
1-6Duke (7.0)ACCH96-85W100%0.0
1-11Clemson (11.0)ACCH78-77W100%0.0
1-14Virginia (1.0)ACCA68-51L0%0.0
1-18Wake Forest (160.0)ACCH72-63W100%0.0
1-21Miami FL (28.0)ACCH81-86L0%0.0
1-24Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCA68-72W100%0.0
1-27North Carolina (4.0)ACCA91-95W100%0.0
2-3Notre Dame (70.0)ACCH76-58W100%0.0
2-7Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCA85-75L0%0.0
2-10North Carolina (4.0)ACCH89-96L0%0.0
2-14Syracuse (45.0)ACCA70-74W100%0.0
2-17Wake Forest (160.0)ACCA84-90W100%0.0
2-20Boston College (96.0)ACCH82-66W100%0.0
2-25Florida St. (54.0)ACCH92-72W100%0.0
3-1Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCA78-75L0%0.0
3-3Louisville (38.0)ACCH76-69W100%0.0
3-7Boston College (96.0)ACCN87-91L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina St.ACC26.0326.0361.3661.365.915.91
North CarolinaACC3.803.8072.7372.731.731.73
Boston CollegeACC3.763.7656.2556.250.470.47
Notre DameACC3.723.7258.0658.060.600.60
ClemsonACC3.703.7073.3373.331.721.72
Wake ForestACC3.673.6737.9337.93-0.89-0.89
SyracuseACC2.232.2362.5062.500.560.56
Georgia TechACC2.232.2338.7138.71-0.50-0.50
VirginiaACC2.232.2393.7593.751.951.95
DukeACC2.232.2381.2581.251.391.39
Florida St.ACC2.192.1966.6766.670.730.73
LouisvilleACC2.172.1762.5062.500.540.54
Virginia TechACC2.162.1664.5264.520.630.63
PittsburghACC2.162.1625.8125.81-1.05-1.05
Miami FLACC2.162.1670.0070.000.860.86
PresbyterianBSth1.771.7728.5728.57-0.76-0.76
Charleston SouthernBSth1.721.7244.4444.44-0.19-0.19
UNC GreensboroSC1.721.7276.6776.670.920.92
TennesseeSEC1.711.7175.0075.000.850.85
South Carolina St.MEAC1.691.6927.5927.59-0.76-0.76
VMISC1.671.6725.9325.93-0.80-0.80
BryantNEC1.631.6310.0010.00-1.31-1.31
Robert MorrisNEC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
JacksonvilleASun1.591.5939.2939.29-0.34-0.34
Penn St.B101.591.5963.6463.640.430.43
ArizonaP121.561.5681.8281.820.990.99
UMKCWAC1.561.5628.5728.57-0.67-0.67
UNC AshevilleBSth0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
The CitadelSC0.210.2127.5927.59-0.09-0.09
WoffordSC0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.200.2036.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
Ohio St.B100.190.1975.0075.000.090.09
LibertyBSth0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
FurmanSC0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
LongwoodBSth0.160.1613.3313.33-0.12-0.12
RadfordBSth0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.160.1640.7440.74-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Chicago St.WAC0.150.153.333.33-0.14-0.14
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
WinthropBSth0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
CampbellBSth0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
MercerSC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
DavidsonA100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
WagnerNEC0.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
FloridaSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.120.1223.0823.08-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
PurdueB100.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
USC UpstateASun0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1184.3884.380.070.07
LipscombASun0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
DrakeMVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1015.6215.62-0.07-0.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
UCLAP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
RichmondA100.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.090.0979.4179.410.060.06
NorthwesternB100.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
NebraskaB100.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
StanfordP120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
YaleIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
George WashingtonA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
MarylandB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
ColoradoP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ElonCAA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
BucknellPat0.040.0473.5373.530.020.02
PortlandWCC0.040.0424.1424.14-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
KansasB120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Little RockSB0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01